Saturday, 24 May 2008
T Boone Pickens or everyone else?
The improbably named T Boone Pickens alleges that global oil production is at a peak and that prices will now rise ineluctably. Economists, governments and the financial sector say differently. However, so far T Boone's forecasts have proven more accurate - a short interview here.
Kevin Maguire is absolutely right
'Red Flag' Kevin Maguire writes in the Mirror today that Labour should keep its nerve and get behind Gordon Brown. I absolutely agree.
Lord Freeman should resign the Tory whip
We're all grown ups here, and realise that the primary responsibility of the Chairman of a plc is to its shareholders. It's also a fact of life that the 'revolving door' is more alive in the defence and aerospace sectors of industry than elsewhere; ex defence ministers, civil servants and staff officers segue seamlessly from Whitehall to Boardroom.
Lord Freeman, who as Roger Freeman was Kettering's MP and served in the last Tory administrations holding ministerial posts in defence, health and transport, and was also a partner and former MD of Lehman Brothers. Elevation to the upper house in 1997 opened up for him a number of useful board appointments, including Chairmanship of the UK Advisory Panel at PricewaterhouseCoopers, London, Director of Thales SA France and Chairman of Thales UK plc, Chairman of Metalysis (a Cambridge University spin-off), Chairman of CrossCore Optimisation (an Imperial College, London spin-off) and Chairman of Cambridge Enterprise Ltd (The Technology Transfer Office). As a good capitalist I have no particular problem with any of this.
No. The problem comes with ID cards. As became evident in Crewe and Nantwich, the Tory party is opposed to ID cards for everyone (as opposed to just immigrants as dirtyLabour suggested). Good. So am I. Implacably. I am wholly in line with Tory party policy here.
Looking at the list of shortlisted contractors for the Government's ID card scheme, I can easily boycott goods and services from three of them; IBM, Fujitsu and EDS (Hewlett Packard). Oh yes, I am a serial boycotter. The lost profits to these companies of me not buying a new PC or printer from them may be miniscule, and a business purchasing decision to subject them to particular scrutiny only marginally more painful for them, but it helps me feel I'm doing my bit.
The remaining two shortlisted companies I can take no direct action against; CSC is American, and Thales UK plc doesn't make anything I buy personally or am responsible for buying.
However, I do think it's a bit off for the Chairman of Thales to continue to take the Tory whip in the Lords. For Freeman to quietly resign the Tory whip and sit as an independent would be both honourable and circumspect under the circumstances.
Lord Freeman, who as Roger Freeman was Kettering's MP and served in the last Tory administrations holding ministerial posts in defence, health and transport, and was also a partner and former MD of Lehman Brothers. Elevation to the upper house in 1997 opened up for him a number of useful board appointments, including Chairmanship of the UK Advisory Panel at PricewaterhouseCoopers, London, Director of Thales SA France and Chairman of Thales UK plc, Chairman of Metalysis (a Cambridge University spin-off), Chairman of CrossCore Optimisation (an Imperial College, London spin-off) and Chairman of Cambridge Enterprise Ltd (The Technology Transfer Office). As a good capitalist I have no particular problem with any of this.
No. The problem comes with ID cards. As became evident in Crewe and Nantwich, the Tory party is opposed to ID cards for everyone (as opposed to just immigrants as dirtyLabour suggested). Good. So am I. Implacably. I am wholly in line with Tory party policy here.
Looking at the list of shortlisted contractors for the Government's ID card scheme, I can easily boycott goods and services from three of them; IBM, Fujitsu and EDS (Hewlett Packard). Oh yes, I am a serial boycotter. The lost profits to these companies of me not buying a new PC or printer from them may be miniscule, and a business purchasing decision to subject them to particular scrutiny only marginally more painful for them, but it helps me feel I'm doing my bit.
The remaining two shortlisted companies I can take no direct action against; CSC is American, and Thales UK plc doesn't make anything I buy personally or am responsible for buying.
However, I do think it's a bit off for the Chairman of Thales to continue to take the Tory whip in the Lords. For Freeman to quietly resign the Tory whip and sit as an independent would be both honourable and circumspect under the circumstances.
Friday, 23 May 2008
If Crewe and Nantwich were repeated nationally ....
If the Crewe and Nantwich result were repeated nationally (which of course it won't be), the excellent Electoral Calculus site (enter yesterday's figures in the 'Make your prediction' page) suggests a Conservative majority of 228 seats in Parliament. The unlucky Labour losers would include some of the best known names in Zanu Labour:
| Aberconwy | CON | gain from | LAB | : Betty Williams |
| Aberdeen South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Anne Begg |
| Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | CON | gain from | LIB | : Sir Robert Smith |
| Amber Valley | CON | gain from | LAB | : Judy Mallaber |
| Angus | CON | gain from | NAT | : Michael Weir |
| Arfon | NAT | gain from | LAB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Argyll and Bute | CON | gain from | LIB | : Alan Reid |
| Ashfield | CON | gain from | LAB | : Geoff Hoon |
| Barrow and Furness | CON | gain from | LAB | : John Hutton |
| Basildon South and East Thurrock | CON | gain from | LAB | : Angela Smith |
| Bassetlaw | CON | gain from | LAB | : John Mann |
| Bath | CON | gain from | LIB | : Don Foster |
| Batley and Spen | CON | gain from | LAB | : Mike Wood |
| Battersea | CON | gain from | LAB | : Martin Linton |
| Bedford | CON | gain from | LAB | : Patrick Hall |
| Berwick-upon-Tweed | CON | gain from | LIB | : Alan Beith |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | CON | gain from | LIB | : Michael Moore |
| Birmingham Edgbaston | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gisela Stuart |
| Birmingham Hall Green | CON | gain from | LAB | : Roger Godsiff |
| Birmingham Northfield | CON | gain from | LAB | : Richard Burden |
| Birmingham Selly Oak | CON | gain from | LAB | : Stephen McCabe |
| Blackburn | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jack Straw |
| Blackpool North and Cleveleys | CON | gain from | LAB | : Joan Humble |
| Blackpool South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gordon Marsden |
| Bolton North East | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Crausby |
| Bolton West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ruth Kelly |
| Bradford South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gerry Sutcliffe |
| Bradford West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Marsha Singh |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Roger Williams |
| Brent North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Barry Gardiner |
| Brentford and Isleworth | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ann Keen |
| Bridgend | CON | gain from | LAB | : Madeleine Moon |
| Brigg and Goole | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ian Cawsey |
| Brighton Kemptown | CON | gain from | LAB | : Desmond Turner |
| Brighton Pavilion | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Lepper |
| Bristol East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Kerry McCarthy |
| Bristol North West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Doug Naysmith |
| Bristol West | CON | gain from | LIB | : Stephen Williams |
| Broxtowe | CON | gain from | LAB | : Nick Palmer |
| Burnley | CON | gain from | LAB | : Kitty Ussher |
| Burton | CON | gain from | LAB | : Janet Dean |
| Bury North | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Chaytor |
| Calder Valley | CON | gain from | LAB | : Christine McCafferty |
| Camborne and Redruth | CON | gain from | LIB | : Julia Goldsworthy |
| Cambridge | CON | gain from | LIB | : David Howarth |
| Cannock Chase | CON | gain from | LAB | : Tony Wright |
| Cardiff North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Julie Morgan |
| Cardiff South and Penarth | CON | gain from | LAB | : Alun Michael |
| Cardiff West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Kevin Brennan |
| Carlisle | CON | gain from | LAB | : Eric Martlew |
| Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Nick Ainger |
| Carshalton and Wallington | CON | gain from | LIB | : Tom Brake |
| Ceredigion | NAT | gain from | LIB | : Mark Williams |
| Chatham and Aylesford | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jonathan Shaw |
| Cheadle | CON | gain from | LIB | : Patsy Calton |
| Cheltenham | CON | gain from | LIB | : Martin Horwood |
| Chester, City of | CON | gain from | LAB | : Christine Russell |
| Chippenham | CON | gain from | LIB | : Unknown (new seat) |
| Chorley | CON | gain from | LAB | : Lindsay Hoyle |
| Cleethorpes | CON | gain from | LAB | : Shona McIsaac |
| Clwyd South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Martyn Jones |
| Colchester | CON | gain from | LIB | : Bob Russell |
| Colne Valley | CON | gain from | LAB | : Kali Mountford |
| Copeland | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jamie Reed |
| Corby | CON | gain from | LAB | : Phil Hope |
| Cornwall North | CON | gain from | LIB | : Dan Rogerson |
| Cornwall South East | CON | gain from | LIB | : Colin Breed |
| Coventry North West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Geoffrey Robinson |
| Coventry South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jim Cunningham |
| Crawley | CON | gain from | LAB | : Laura Moffatt |
| Crewe and Nantwich | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gwyneth Dunwoody |
| Croydon Central | CON | gain from | LAB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Dagenham and Rainham | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jon Cruddas |
| Dartford | CON | gain from | LAB | : Howard Stoate |
| Delyn | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Hanson |
| Derby North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Bob Laxton |
| Derbyshire North East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Natascha Engel |
| Derbyshire South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Mark Todd |
| Devon North | CON | gain from | LIB | : Nick Harvey |
| Devon West and Torridge | CON | gain from | LIB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Dewsbury | CON | gain from | LAB | : Shahid Malik |
| Dorset Mid and Poole North | CON | gain from | LIB | : Annette Brooke |
| Dorset South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jim Knight |
| Dover | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gwyn Prosser |
| Dudley North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ian Austin |
| Dudley South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ian Pearson |
| Dulwich and West Norwood | CON | gain from | LAB | : Tessa Jowell |
| Dumfries and Galloway | CON | gain from | LAB | : Russell Brown |
| Dunbartonshire East | CON | gain from | LIB | : Jo Swinson |
| Ealing Central and Acton | CON | gain from | LAB | : Andrew Slaughter |
| Ealing North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Stephen Pound |
| Eastleigh | CON | gain from | LIB | : Christopher Huhne |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | CON | gain from | LAB | : Mark Lazarowicz |
| Edinburgh South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Nigel Griffiths |
| Edinburgh South West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Alistair Darling |
| Ellesmere Port and Neston | CON | gain from | LAB | : Andrew Miller |
| Elmet and Rothwell | CON | gain from | LAB | : Colin Burgon |
| Eltham | CON | gain from | LAB | : Clive Efford |
| Erewash | CON | gain from | LAB | : Liz Blackman |
| Exeter | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ben Bradshaw |
| Feltham and Heston | CON | gain from | LAB | : Alan Keen |
| Gedling | CON | gain from | LAB | : Vernon Coaker |
| Gloucester | CON | gain from | LAB | : Parmjit Dhanda |
| Gower | CON | gain from | LAB | : Martin Caton |
| Great Grimsby | CON | gain from | LAB | : Austin Mitchell |
| Great Yarmouth | CON | gain from | LAB | : Tony Wright |
| Guildford | CON | gain from | LIB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Halesowen and Rowley Regis | CON | gain from | LAB | : Sylvia Heal |
| Halifax | CON | gain from | LAB | : Linda Riordan |
| Hammersmith | CON | gain from | LAB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Hampstead and Kilburn | CON | gain from | LIB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Harlow | CON | gain from | LAB | : Bill Rammell |
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | CON | gain from | LIB | : Phil Willis |
| Harrow East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Tony McNulty |
| Harrow West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gareth Thomas |
| Hastings and Rye | CON | gain from | LAB | : Michael Foster |
| Hazel Grove | CON | gain from | LIB | : Andrew Stunell |
| Hendon | CON | gain from | LAB | : Andrew Dismore |
| Hereford and South Herefordshire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Paul Keetch |
| High Peak | CON | gain from | LAB | : Tom Levitt |
| Holborn and St Pancras | CON | gain from | LAB | : Frank Dobson |
| Hove | CON | gain from | LAB | : Celia Barlow |
| Huddersfield | CON | gain from | LAB | : Barry Sheerman |
| Hyndburn | CON | gain from | LAB | : Greg Pope |
| Ilford South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Mike Gapes |
| Ipswich | CON | gain from | LAB | : Chris Mole |
| Keighley | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ann Cryer |
| Kingston and Surbiton | CON | gain from | LIB | : Edward Davey |
| Kingswood | CON | gain from | LAB | : Roger Berry |
| Lancashire West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Rosie Cooper |
| Lancaster and Fleetwood | CON | gain from | LAB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Leeds North East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Fabian Hamilton |
| Leeds North West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Leicester South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Peter Soulsby |
| Leicestershire North West | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Taylor |
| Lewes | CON | gain from | LIB | : Norman Baker |
| Lewisham East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Bridget Prentice |
| Lewisham West and Penge | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jim Dowd |
| Leyton and Wanstead | CON | gain from | LAB | : Harry Cohen |
| Lincoln | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gillian Merron |
| Loughborough | CON | gain from | LAB | : Andy Reed |
| Luton North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Kelvin Hopkins |
| Luton South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Margaret Moran |
| Manchester Withington | LAB | gain from | LIB | : John Leech |
| Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ashok Kumar |
| Milton Keynes North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Milton Keynes South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Phyllis Starkey |
| Montgomeryshire | CON | gain from | LIB | : Lembit Opik |
| Moray | CON | gain from | NAT | : Angus Robertson |
| Morecambe and Lunesdale | CON | gain from | LAB | : Geraldine Smith |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | CON | gain from | LAB | : Paul Farrelly |
| Newport East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jessica Morden |
| Newport West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Paul Flynn |
| Newton Abbot | CON | gain from | LIB | : Richard Younger-Ross |
| Norfolk North | CON | gain from | LIB | : Norman Lamb |
| Northampton North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Sally Keeble |
| Northampton South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
| Norwich North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ian Gibson |
| Norwich South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Charles Clarke |
| Nottingham East | CON | gain from | LAB | : John Heppell |
| Nottingham South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Alan Simpson |
| Nuneaton | CON | gain from | LAB | : Bill Olner |
| Ochil and South Perthshire | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gordon Banks |
| Oldham East and Saddleworth | CON | gain from | LAB | : Phil Woolas |
| Oxford East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Andrew Smith |
| Oxford West and Abingdon | CON | gain from | LIB | : Evan Harris |
| Pendle | CON | gain from | LAB | : Gordon Prentice |
| Perth and North Perthshire | CON | gain from | NAT | : Peter Wishart |
| Plymouth Moor View | CON | gain from | LAB | : Alison Seabeck |
| Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | CON | gain from | LAB | : Linda Gilroy |
| Poplar and Limehouse | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jim Fitzpatrick |
| Portsmouth North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Sarah McCarthy-Fry |
| Portsmouth South | CON | gain from | LIB | : Mike Hancock |
| Pudsey | CON | gain from | LAB | : Paul Truswell |
| Reading West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Martin Salter |
| Redditch | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jacqui Smith |
| Renfrewshire East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Jim Murphy |
| Ribble South | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Borrow |
| Richmond Park | CON | gain from | LIB | : Susan Kramer |
| Rochdale | LAB | gain from | LIB | : Paul Rowen |
| Romsey and Southampton North | CON | gain from | LIB | : Sandra Gidley |
| Rossendale and Darwen | CON | gain from | LAB | : Janet Anderson |
| Sefton Central | CON | gain from | LAB | : Claire Curtis-Thomas |
| Sheffield Hallam | CON | gain from | LIB | : Nick Clegg |
| Sherwood | CON | gain from | LAB | : Paddy Tipping |
| Slough | CON | gain from | LAB | : Fiona Mactaggart |
| Solihull | CON | gain from | LIB | : Lorely Burt |
| Somerset North East | CON | gain from | LAB | : Dan Norris |
| Somerton and Frome | CON | gain from | LIB | : David Heath |
| Southampton Itchen | CON | gain from | LAB | : John Denham |
| Southampton Test | CON | gain from | LAB | : Alan Whitehead |
| Southport | CON | gain from | LIB | : John Pugh |
| St Austell and Newquay | CON | gain from | LIB | : Unknown (new seat) |
| St Ives | CON | gain from | LIB | : Andrew George |
| Stafford | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Kidney |
| Stalybridge and Hyde | CON | gain from | LAB | : James Purnell |
| Stevenage | CON | gain from | LAB | : Barbara Follett |
| Stirling | CON | gain from | LAB | : Anne McGuire |
| Stockton South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Dari Taylor |
| Stourbridge | CON | gain from | LAB | : Lynda Waltho |
| Stroud | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Drew |
| Sunderland Central | CON | gain from | LAB | : Bill Etherington |
| Sutton and Cheam | CON | gain from | LIB | : Paul Burstow |
| Swindon North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Michael Wills |
| Swindon South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Anna Snelgrove |
| Tamworth | CON | gain from | LAB | : Brian Jenkins |
| Taunton Deane | CON | gain from | LIB | : Jeremy Browne |
| Telford | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Wright |
| Thornbury and Yate | CON | gain from | LIB | : Steve Webb |
| Thurrock | CON | gain from | LAB | : Andrew Mackinlay |
| Tooting | CON | gain from | LAB | : Sadiq Khan |
| Torbay | CON | gain from | LIB | : Adrian Sanders |
| Truro and Falmouth | CON | gain from | LIB | : Matthew Taylor |
| Twickenham | CON | gain from | LIB | : Vincent Cable |
| Tynemouth | CON | gain from | LAB | : Alan Campbell |
| Vale of Clwyd | CON | gain from | LAB | : Chris Ruane |
| Vale of Glamorgan | CON | gain from | LAB | : John Smith |
| Wakefield | CON | gain from | LAB | : Mary Creagh |
| Walsall North | CON | gain from | LAB | : David Winnick |
| Walsall South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Bruce George |
| Warrington South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Helen Southworth |
| Warwick and Leamington | CON | gain from | LAB | : James Plaskitt |
| Warwickshire North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Mike O'Brien |
| Watford | CON | gain from | LAB | : Claire Ward |
| Waveney | CON | gain from | LAB | : Bob Blizzard |
| Weaver Vale | CON | gain from | LAB | : Mike Hall |
| Westminster North | CON | gain from | LAB | : Karen Buck |
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | CON | gain from | LIB | : Tim Farron |
| Winchester | CON | gain from | LIB | : Mark Oaten |
| Wirral South | CON | gain from | LAB | : Ben Chapman |
| Wolverhampton South West | CON | gain from | LAB | : Robert Marris |
| Worcester | CON | gain from | LAB | : Michael Foster |
| Wyre Forest | CON | gain from | MIN | : Dr Richard Taylor |
| Yeovil | CON | gain from | LIB | : David Laws |
| Ynys Mon | NAT | gain from | LAB | : Albert Owen |
| York Outer | CON | gain from | LIB | : Unknown (changed seat) |
T. Boone Pickens sums it up
"The world produces an absolute maximum of 85 million barrels of oil a day to satisfy a demand of 87 million barrels a day."
Good. Now go figure the price elasticity of demand for oil and tell me what will happen to prices ...
Good. Now go figure the price elasticity of demand for oil and tell me what will happen to prices ...
Thursday, 22 May 2008
Dunwoody: "Would you like that large, Sir?"
Apis Mellifera and Maize

There was an old schoolboy riddle that asked "why don't polar bears eat penguins?" that played on the victim's ignorance of the geographical separation of the species. It came to mind yesterday when I was talking to a young man who had spent some short time in east Africa with one of the international volunteer organisations and therefore regarded himself as something of an expert on the required solutions to Africa's problems.
His argument got to the point of blaming the imposition of western agricultural systems as destroying the indigenous 'village' agricultural systems. "If we let them grow their traditional crops of maize and cassava in their own way ..." he said.
At that point I was obliged to point out that maize and cassava, and peanuts and sweet potato too for that matter, were not in the least native to Africa but were introduced there from the Americas by the Europeans. Only millet and sorghum would have been familiar to Africa prior to European intervention. His argument lost a great deal of its moral force at that point.
And so with the honey bee, Apis Mellifera. Generations of north American children who have grown up with Disney apparently believe the honey bee to be a native American species. But not so. Honey bees were confined to Europe and Africa before the colonisation of America, and were taken there to pollinate the crops introduced from Europe that were not pollinated by native American pollinators.
And therefore the title of this post is a little misleading; native maize in the Americas never required the honey bee to pollinate it. Many of the US' cash crops however do now rely on the honey bee; almonds, peaches, soya beans, blackberries, raspberries, cherries and pears being amongst them.
Around the world bees are dying from something called Colony Collapse Disorder, and no one knows why. Microwaves from mobile phones, GM crops, insecticides including imidacloprid and fipronil, climate change and other causes have been hypothesised but nothing is known yet. France has lost over 1,000 tonnes a year of honey production and has banned some pesticides, but to unproven effect. If the global collapse of honey bee populations continues, the US may lose valuable cash crops but Europe risks starvation.
I try not to be too Cassandra-like on this blog, but for over a year I have posted from time to time on the growing risks to our most basic well-being. The mass-migration of tens of millions of Africans driven by hunger, thirst and want northwards into Europe's soft underbelly, cheap air travel that provides a motorway for pandemics such as HN51 and multi drug resistant infections, Peak Oil and the prospect not of $200 a barrel (now almost a certainty) but $500, the effect of the increasing numbers of Extreme Climate Events on global food production, the dependence of the UK on imports for almost half the food we consume (we haven't been self sufficient in food since the Industrial Revolution), and the potential for a global economic depression that will make the events of 80 years ago seem mild in comparison.
On any balanced analysis of risk, the above overwhelmingly outweigh the insignificant risks of Jihadist terrorism. Yet the government and the opposition almost seem to have tacitly agreed to focus the public's mind on this rather minor threat.
Cameron's major speech this week included the following
... we have set out how we will achieve that mission – by ending the era of top-down state control and big government. We want to respond to what should be a new postbureaucratic age, by decentralising power, by giving people more opportunity and control over their lives, by making families stronger and society more responsible.It's an encouraging signal at this stage. Nothing more. But if we're going to come though the coming crises as a nation, the economy and public administration must be ready to operate on what amounts to a war footing; Cameron's team should also be examining policy as it relates to a number of contingency plans to deal with national and international emergencies. Labour's Big State Centralism is ill-equipped to respond effectively to even a single threat event, let alone a multiple risk scenario.
... Where services are individually consumed we will transfer power over those services to individual people, giving them a choice between competing providers. And where services are collectively consumed, we will transfer power over those services to the lowest practical tier of government, opening up provision to social enterprises, private companies and community organisations.
When the chips are down, we will rely on our abilities of self-organisation at community and neighbourhood level; self-reliance will be the key, not waiting hopelessly for State aid. Local and intermediate institutions must be strengthened. The family and not the State must take precedence. We must learn to live without micro-management from Whitehall. If we do so, we stand half a chance of successfully facing whatever will be thrown at us in the coming years. But we must all be conscious of the threats. And as busy as bees.
Wednesday, 21 May 2008
Vir sapit qui pauca loquitur
The 'Standard' tells us this evening that Boris is facing his weekly assembly meetings with rare good humour. The continual sniping from the few remaining Labour members is interspersed with shouted interjections from the odious BNP AM Richard Barnbrook. When Barnbrook's idiocies irritate Boris sufficiently he responds in Latin.
British to smoke more, says Imperial
An encouraging piece in the Guardian this morning with Imperial Tobacco's announcement that cigarette sales in the UK are set to rise this year. This goes hand-in-hand with an announcement yesterday from the organic food producers that sales of organic foods are set to fall sharply this year. The government's forthcoming helpful advice on which drinks contain the most units of alcohol will also assist booze sales to increase. I also predict that sales of fat, sugary comfort foods will increase and yoghurt and beansprout sales will plummet, and also that Britain will waste less food this year. Gym and fitness centres will feel the pinch as subscriptions and income fall.
Good. We're getting back to normal.
And for those not in-the-know, the French government sold the Gauloises brand to the Spanish firm Altadis some time ago. Imperial has now bought Altadis, and has therefore added Gauloises to its stable of brands. Even though I pay my tax and duty to the French treasury rather than the British treasury, it's nice to know I'm now contributing to the profits of a British company.
Good. We're getting back to normal.
And for those not in-the-know, the French government sold the Gauloises brand to the Spanish firm Altadis some time ago. Imperial has now bought Altadis, and has therefore added Gauloises to its stable of brands. Even though I pay my tax and duty to the French treasury rather than the British treasury, it's nice to know I'm now contributing to the profits of a British company.
Tuesday, 20 May 2008
South Africa heads down Zimbabwe route
Last December some members of the NEC (yes, it stands for the same as Zanu Labour's) of the ANC were worried that that plod was closing in on their corruption. The solution? Disband South Africa's highly effective anti-corruption unit. Mbeki has just approved the measure, keeping his own thieving and corrupt supporters sweet. Transparency International, of course, deplores the measure.
They'll soon get a taste for this. Any independent voice in South Africa that questions their incompetence and corruption will be closed down, shut out and silenced. This is just the beginning of South Africa's slow but certain descent into the horror of Mugabe's Zim.
God rot their foetid souls.
They'll soon get a taste for this. Any independent voice in South Africa that questions their incompetence and corruption will be closed down, shut out and silenced. This is just the beginning of South Africa's slow but certain descent into the horror of Mugabe's Zim.
God rot their foetid souls.
Plod kills another innocent
As yet another innocent person's corpse lies in a mortuary fridge tonight as the result of a high speed police chase, the time has come to call a halt to this carnage. Every week another person is killed or seriously maimed by 'red mist' gormless idiots at the wheels of police vehicles.
Let's be clear about this. Chasing a car without a tax disk at high speed, or a moped rider not wearing a helmet, isn't worth the risk to public safety. It gives the idiot plod at the wheel a satisfying and addictive adrenaline rush, but that's about all.
Heather Mills, loathe her or hate her, lost her leg to a speeding police vehicle. No-one deserves that. Just google deaths in police chases site:uk and pages of innocent lives cut short by this moronic power-trip come up.
Being a plod isn't a licence to have fun at the cost of pain, death and the ruin of innocent lives. Here in London too many of these idiots on 'blues and twos' rushing to the Mcdonalds drive-in or just because they're bored in a traffic queue deserve dismissal. It's time to say STOP to this criminal and anti-social behaviour.
Update
=======
The suggestion has been made elsewhere that permission to use lights and siren or to drive at speed in pursuit or response should be given by the control room, and not left to the vehicle's driver to decide. I wholly agree with this. Any accident caused by a vehicle using blues and twos without consent would then automatically result in the driver's prosecution. A simple measure that could be implemented immediately.
Let's be clear about this. Chasing a car without a tax disk at high speed, or a moped rider not wearing a helmet, isn't worth the risk to public safety. It gives the idiot plod at the wheel a satisfying and addictive adrenaline rush, but that's about all.
Heather Mills, loathe her or hate her, lost her leg to a speeding police vehicle. No-one deserves that. Just google deaths in police chases site:uk and pages of innocent lives cut short by this moronic power-trip come up.
Being a plod isn't a licence to have fun at the cost of pain, death and the ruin of innocent lives. Here in London too many of these idiots on 'blues and twos' rushing to the Mcdonalds drive-in or just because they're bored in a traffic queue deserve dismissal. It's time to say STOP to this criminal and anti-social behaviour.
Update
=======
The suggestion has been made elsewhere that permission to use lights and siren or to drive at speed in pursuit or response should be given by the control room, and not left to the vehicle's driver to decide. I wholly agree with this. Any accident caused by a vehicle using blues and twos without consent would then automatically result in the driver's prosecution. A simple measure that could be implemented immediately.
Uniform in an age of 'rights'
Unlike their continental counterparts, British officers like to escape from uniform into 'mufti' at the earliest opportunity. When commanders become sufficiently senior to please themselves, they have long eschewed uniform even for duty; Wellington favoured a plain old hunting coat, and Monty spent as much of the war as he could in baggy cords and an old gardening jumper.
The wearing of uniform off-duty was often at the insistence of the battalion commander. The public behaviour of an officer in uniform reflects the honour of the regiment, and inhibits the more louche behaviour. Officers siting in a cafe or a hotel lobby sipping a gin and French would stand when approached by a woman, or someone more senior. They couldn't carry packages or parcels unless for a lady. And they certainly couldn't get drunk in public. No wonder so many preferred to keep uniform for the mess, where a less public decorum could prevail, and to seek the anonymity of 'mufti' for the rest.
Still, the sight of Household Brigade officers in blue 'patrols' with cap, gloves and cane around the streets of Chelsea always added a touch of class and a bit of glamour. They're still recognisable, though these days in jeans, polished brogues and Jermyn Street shirt they're more likely to stumble pissed from the door of Boujis at 3am than to chat decorously amid the palms of an Edwardian hotel lounge. What's changed of course is deference.
Since the 1970s the social status of all those who used to be prescribed for the signing of passport photographs - doctors, lawyers, MPs, ministers of religion, officers in HM armed services - has fallen into desuetude. This doesn't mean we're a more equal society, because we're not. Social mobility was far greater thirty or forty years ago. No, it's part of a long term erosion of the authority of intermediate institutions by a central State jealous of power. Paradoxically it's the MPs who are now feeling the brunt of the demise of deference; it's all your own fault, mateys.
And it's this pernicious 'rights' and 'equalities' agenda that fosters the illusion in the mind of the meanest underachieving scrote that he's as good as anyone; an officer in uniform runs the risk of an uninvited approach from such as these, ending in the inevitable challenge "You think you're better than me, don't you?". No wonder they prefer to remain in 'mufti'. So yes to officers in uniform at private functions, in the steward's enclosure, in the audience at the Royal Opera. But no to walking the street or enjoying a drink in a public place in uniform - it's not fair to expose them to the grungy, repellent chimera of aggressive 'rights' and 'equalities' alive in the lowest parts of our society.
The wearing of uniform off-duty was often at the insistence of the battalion commander. The public behaviour of an officer in uniform reflects the honour of the regiment, and inhibits the more louche behaviour. Officers siting in a cafe or a hotel lobby sipping a gin and French would stand when approached by a woman, or someone more senior. They couldn't carry packages or parcels unless for a lady. And they certainly couldn't get drunk in public. No wonder so many preferred to keep uniform for the mess, where a less public decorum could prevail, and to seek the anonymity of 'mufti' for the rest.
Still, the sight of Household Brigade officers in blue 'patrols' with cap, gloves and cane around the streets of Chelsea always added a touch of class and a bit of glamour. They're still recognisable, though these days in jeans, polished brogues and Jermyn Street shirt they're more likely to stumble pissed from the door of Boujis at 3am than to chat decorously amid the palms of an Edwardian hotel lounge. What's changed of course is deference.
Since the 1970s the social status of all those who used to be prescribed for the signing of passport photographs - doctors, lawyers, MPs, ministers of religion, officers in HM armed services - has fallen into desuetude. This doesn't mean we're a more equal society, because we're not. Social mobility was far greater thirty or forty years ago. No, it's part of a long term erosion of the authority of intermediate institutions by a central State jealous of power. Paradoxically it's the MPs who are now feeling the brunt of the demise of deference; it's all your own fault, mateys.
And it's this pernicious 'rights' and 'equalities' agenda that fosters the illusion in the mind of the meanest underachieving scrote that he's as good as anyone; an officer in uniform runs the risk of an uninvited approach from such as these, ending in the inevitable challenge "You think you're better than me, don't you?". No wonder they prefer to remain in 'mufti'. So yes to officers in uniform at private functions, in the steward's enclosure, in the audience at the Royal Opera. But no to walking the street or enjoying a drink in a public place in uniform - it's not fair to expose them to the grungy, repellent chimera of aggressive 'rights' and 'equalities' alive in the lowest parts of our society.
Monday, 19 May 2008
Tamsin Dunwoody - What Crewe and Nantwich should ask
Tamsin Dunwoody appealed to the council estate vote today when she said "I am just a single, unemployed mother of five fighting hard for a job".
Dunwoody-Kneafsey, granddaughter of Baroness Phillips, daughter of an MP, was educated at the Grey Coat Hospital and the University of Kent. A thousand council houses could be built on her estate in Wales. The public purse paid for her NHS training, where she accumulated 15 years experience. She currently works (or last worked) as a management consultant.
Dunwoody-Kneafsey has never had to fight hard for a job in her life. If she is economically inactive at present, it is by choice - indolence rather than injustice. She has more advantages than 99.5% of the population. If she can't use them, she must either be lazy or stupid.
Do the voters of Crewe and Nantwich really want to elect a lazy (or stupid) candidate who can't hold a relationship together?
Dunwoody-Kneafsey, granddaughter of Baroness Phillips, daughter of an MP, was educated at the Grey Coat Hospital and the University of Kent. A thousand council houses could be built on her estate in Wales. The public purse paid for her NHS training, where she accumulated 15 years experience. She currently works (or last worked) as a management consultant.
Dunwoody-Kneafsey has never had to fight hard for a job in her life. If she is economically inactive at present, it is by choice - indolence rather than injustice. She has more advantages than 99.5% of the population. If she can't use them, she must either be lazy or stupid.
Do the voters of Crewe and Nantwich really want to elect a lazy (or stupid) candidate who can't hold a relationship together?
For £10m, I'd get the middle classes drinking MUCH more
I don't think I'll see much of Labour's risible new £10m advertising campaign on alcohol units, but by all accounts it's fairly useless anyway.
I've been intimately acquainted with alcohol for many years, and this campaign smacks of amateurism. If we're to get the middle classes drinking more efficiently, then it misses three essential variables; cost per unit, the quality of the pissed, and environmental factors.
A bottle of Pichon Lalande drunk over three leisurely courses barely makes an impact at all. A pint of strong, cold lager quaffed in one immediately after mooring the boat up single-handed in a strong breeze and a 4 knot tide on a hot day produces a rapid warm euphoria and infectious bonhomie. Half a bottle of gin is a decent aperitif with good company and good conversation. A bottle of house red in a pub garden to wind down after work is more effective than a bottle of red quaffed at home in the same circumstances.
And in these straitened times, the middle classes might appreciate some advice on the cheapest and quickest route to inebriation; by and large they will be ignorant of the empirical research diligently undertaken on this by street drinkers and the underclass. Forget units, it's the mix that matters most here - a can of Diamond White cider mixed in a jug with a can of Stella lager (a small measure of Framboise or Creme de Cassis can be added) makes a cheap and effective skullblaster for a quick drink in the garden and the neighbours will mistake it for Kir. However, the quality of the pissed is not high.
No, these silly amateur tipplers have really missed the point. If they gave me the £10m I'd guarantee to increase middle-class drinking by at least 15%; I doubt this campaign will achieve much more than a 5% increase. Another Labour failure.
I've been intimately acquainted with alcohol for many years, and this campaign smacks of amateurism. If we're to get the middle classes drinking more efficiently, then it misses three essential variables; cost per unit, the quality of the pissed, and environmental factors.
A bottle of Pichon Lalande drunk over three leisurely courses barely makes an impact at all. A pint of strong, cold lager quaffed in one immediately after mooring the boat up single-handed in a strong breeze and a 4 knot tide on a hot day produces a rapid warm euphoria and infectious bonhomie. Half a bottle of gin is a decent aperitif with good company and good conversation. A bottle of house red in a pub garden to wind down after work is more effective than a bottle of red quaffed at home in the same circumstances.
And in these straitened times, the middle classes might appreciate some advice on the cheapest and quickest route to inebriation; by and large they will be ignorant of the empirical research diligently undertaken on this by street drinkers and the underclass. Forget units, it's the mix that matters most here - a can of Diamond White cider mixed in a jug with a can of Stella lager (a small measure of Framboise or Creme de Cassis can be added) makes a cheap and effective skullblaster for a quick drink in the garden and the neighbours will mistake it for Kir. However, the quality of the pissed is not high.
No, these silly amateur tipplers have really missed the point. If they gave me the £10m I'd guarantee to increase middle-class drinking by at least 15%; I doubt this campaign will achieve much more than a 5% increase. Another Labour failure.
Sunday, 18 May 2008
I'll agree with Fraser Nelson on this
The abortion debate is one in which we each must listen to our consciences. I make no criticism of those who support the status quo, for such support is in line with their individual conscience. But for myself, the letter reproduced in Fraser Nelson's coffee house piece, and a harrowing article in the Telegraph from a gynaecologist have eliminated whatever doubts I had.
Yes, all MPs should read these accounts before they vote.
Yes, all MPs should read these accounts before they vote.
Teenage Gordon Brown would have been on 'special needs' register
I have so far this year seen nothing so dismal and depressing as the government's new 'Common Assessment Framework' for every young person from a foetus to a 19 year old. The form, which must be filled in by an adult who has undergone the government's five-hour training course, can be found HERE. The manual is HERE. The Mail reports that the police have dubbed it 'Every fat kid matters'.
Unless a child manages to conform to all the dreary non-aspirational tenets of Statist normalcy it is to be classified having special needs and placed on a State register. Interestingly, an 18 year-old Gordon Brown would probably have been so classified. Here is how his form may have been completed:
Health conditions or impairments which significantly affect everyday life functioning whether chronic or acute, including obesity
Subject is blind in one eye and pale and podgy. Admits he eats chips and porridge.
Being well-nourished, being active, rested and protected, gaining control of the body, acquiring physical skills
Subject admits occasional loss of control of his body, but feels his throwing skills for small objects are well developed
The ability to communicate effectively, confidently and appropriately with others
The subject admits deficiencies in these areas. He says people don't understand him. This leads to frustration and temper tantrums.
Ability to gain attention and make contact, access positive relationships, be with others, encourage conversation
Subject says he has no skills in these areas
Listening and paying attention to what others say, making playful and serious responses, enjoying and sharing stories, songs, rhymes and games, learning about words and meanings
He says songs, rhymes and games are frivolous and time-wasting, and he isn't much interested in other people's opinions.
Appropriateness of social and communications skills, for example, body language, excessive use of expletives or inappropriate language, for example brusque manner
Subject says he is impatient of others and sometimes has to throw mobile phones at them
Anti-social behaviour for example, destruction of property, aggression towards others, harm or risk of harm to others
See above
Early sexual activity, unprotected sex, lack of reflection or positive decision making about sex and relationships
Subject says he has no interest in girls and would rather read 'Engels for Boys' and has made a positive decision about sex and relationships - he's not interested.
Sense of belonging, being able to join in, enjoying being with familiar and trusted others, valuing individuality and contributions of self and others, having a role and identity within a group, acceptance by those around them
Subject says Labour Party is the perfect collectivist group so long as he can be in charge and no-one contradicts him
Understanding of the way in which appearance and behaviour are perceived and the impression being created
Subject picked his nose and chewed his nails continually during the assessment. His hair is greasy and unwashed and his standards of personal hygiene dubious.
The ambitions of the child or young person, whether their aspirations are realistic and they are able to plan how to meet them
Subject says he wants to be elected as Prime Minister. He can't see this is an unrealistic aspiration as his lack of capacity to engage emotionally won't make him a vote-winner. "Then by any means necessary" he responded. Assessor got scared at this point and terminated the assessment.
Conclusion: The subject is sociopathic and borderline psychotic. Immediate multi-agency intervention is recommended.
Unless a child manages to conform to all the dreary non-aspirational tenets of Statist normalcy it is to be classified having special needs and placed on a State register. Interestingly, an 18 year-old Gordon Brown would probably have been so classified. Here is how his form may have been completed:
Health conditions or impairments which significantly affect everyday life functioning whether chronic or acute, including obesity
Subject is blind in one eye and pale and podgy. Admits he eats chips and porridge.
Being well-nourished, being active, rested and protected, gaining control of the body, acquiring physical skills
Subject admits occasional loss of control of his body, but feels his throwing skills for small objects are well developed
The ability to communicate effectively, confidently and appropriately with others
The subject admits deficiencies in these areas. He says people don't understand him. This leads to frustration and temper tantrums.
Ability to gain attention and make contact, access positive relationships, be with others, encourage conversation
Subject says he has no skills in these areas
Listening and paying attention to what others say, making playful and serious responses, enjoying and sharing stories, songs, rhymes and games, learning about words and meanings
He says songs, rhymes and games are frivolous and time-wasting, and he isn't much interested in other people's opinions.
Appropriateness of social and communications skills, for example, body language, excessive use of expletives or inappropriate language, for example brusque manner
Subject says he is impatient of others and sometimes has to throw mobile phones at them
Anti-social behaviour for example, destruction of property, aggression towards others, harm or risk of harm to others
See above
Early sexual activity, unprotected sex, lack of reflection or positive decision making about sex and relationships
Subject says he has no interest in girls and would rather read 'Engels for Boys' and has made a positive decision about sex and relationships - he's not interested.
Sense of belonging, being able to join in, enjoying being with familiar and trusted others, valuing individuality and contributions of self and others, having a role and identity within a group, acceptance by those around them
Subject says Labour Party is the perfect collectivist group so long as he can be in charge and no-one contradicts him
Understanding of the way in which appearance and behaviour are perceived and the impression being created
Subject picked his nose and chewed his nails continually during the assessment. His hair is greasy and unwashed and his standards of personal hygiene dubious.
The ambitions of the child or young person, whether their aspirations are realistic and they are able to plan how to meet them
Subject says he wants to be elected as Prime Minister. He can't see this is an unrealistic aspiration as his lack of capacity to engage emotionally won't make him a vote-winner. "Then by any means necessary" he responded. Assessor got scared at this point and terminated the assessment.
Conclusion: The subject is sociopathic and borderline psychotic. Immediate multi-agency intervention is recommended.
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